Today's games will wrap up the dressed rehearsal known as the regular season. The games that count will begin next week. The outcome of today's games will determine who and when we play next week. The only way we can finish first is if we beat the TD's and the Untouchables beat SWAT. Here are the possibilties:
1. We and SWAT win today. The standings would be:
SWAT
PC Bricks
Terminal Digits
Richmond
Master Batters
Outlaws
Mod Squad
Untouchables.
We would play Mod Squad next Wednesday.
2. TD's and SWAT win today. The standings would be:
Terminal Digits
SWAT
PC Bricks
Richmond
Master Batters
Outlaws
Mod Squad
Untouchables
We would play the Outlaws next Wednesday
3. We and Untouchables win today. The standings would be:
PC Bricks
Terminal Digits
Richmond
SWAT
Master Batters
Outlaws
Mod Squad
Untouchables
We would play Untouchables next Thursday.
4. TD's and Untouchables win today. The standings would be:
Terminal Digits
PC Bricks*
SWAT*
Richmond*
Master Batters
Outlaws
Mod Squad
Untouchables
*A three-way tie at 6-4. We'd have to resort to tiebreakers to decide second, third, and fourth place.
I won't go through all of the possibilities if there are ties in today's games. I'll cross that bridge if we come to it.
GREAT JOB MURPH WITH THE PLAYOFF POSSIBLITES. I SEE YOU MADE CURFEW (LOL)
ReplyDeleteThanks, Coach. Actually, I think I missed something in situation #4. We may have to resort to run differential against the league for that one. We can't use the head-to-head tiebreakers for our three-way tie because we didn't play each other and equal number of games. SWAT and Richmond played each other twice but played us only once. See below for the details.
ReplyDelete1. If we and SWAT win, we both finish 7-3. They beat us when we played so they win the tie breaker. The TD's and Richmond finish 6-4 but the TD's beat Richmond so the TD's claim third.
2. If TD's and SWAT win, both finish at 7-3. The TD's claim the tiebreaker because they beat SWAT in their only meeting. We would be tied with Richmond at 6-4 but we beat Richmond so we win the tiebreaker with them.
3. If we beat the TD's and the Untouchables beat SWAT, we finish first at 7-3. The TD's, SWAT, and Richmond finish in a three way tie at 6-4. The TD's beat Richmond and SWAT so I think they win the tiebreaker. Richmond and SWAT split their two games but Richmond trumps them on point differential in head-to-head competition.
TD's > SWAT
TD's > Richmond
Richmond > SWAT
4. TD's finish first at 7-3 and we're in a three-way tie with SWAT and Richmond at 6-4. We beat Richmond but lost to SWAT. Richmond and SWAT split but Richmond wins the tiebreaker with SWAT on head-to-head point differential. If it involved only two ways ties, it would look like this:
PC Bricks > Richmond
Richmond > SWAT
SWAT > PC Bricks
There's no clear winner. We can't use head-to-head point differential for this three-way tie because SWAT and Richmond played each other twice and we played them only once.
Next is record against teams above the tie. Our record against the TD's would be 1-1 while SWAT and Richmond are 0-1 with the TD's. That doesn't work either because we will have played the TD's twice while SWAT and Richmond played them only once.
That leaves it to run differential against the league and we won't have the answer to that until today's games are done. Through nine games we're + 20, Richmond is +20, and SWAT is + 14. We and SWAT would have to lose to be in this situation so Richmond would come out on top at +20. The best we could do is +19 and the best SWAT could do is +13.
The tie for third place between us and SWAT would be decided by today's scores. If we lose by six runs or less, we finish third because we'd be no worse than +14. If we lose by more than six runs, it will depend on the number of runs SWAT surrenders today. If they lose by only one run, they'd be +13. This stuff can get pretty complicated.
As I see it, with the TD's 13-8 victory over us today and the Untouchables defeat of SWAT, we have situation #4. The TD's finish first with a record of 7-3. We are in a three-way tie for second with Richmond and SWAT at 6-4.
ReplyDeleteSince tiebreakers 1 through 4 don't provide a winner, it falls to tiebreaker 5, run differential against the league. Entering today, we and Richmond stood at +20 and SWAT was +14. We lost by 5 so we drop to +15. SWAT lost by 2 so they drop to +12.
Thus, the final standings for the 2010 regular season are:
1. Terminal Digits (7-3)
2. Richmond (6-4) +20
3. PC Bricks (6-4) +15
4. SWAT (6-4) +12
5. Master Batters (5-5)
6. Outlaws (4-5-1)
7. Mod Squad (3-7)
8. Untouchables (2-7-1)
Next week's playoff match-ups are:
Wednesday
Outlaws @ PC Bricks
Mod Squad @ Richmond
Thursday
Master Batters @ SWAT
Untouchables @ Terminal Digits
If you think I missed something, please let me know.
I forgot to mention tiebreaker #2 which is the number of forfeits. Richmond had one but neither we nor SWAT had one so #2 doesn't break the tie.
ReplyDeleteI goofed in my spreadsheet, though the order was correct. The true run differential was as follows:
ReplyDeleteRichmond +27
PC Bricks +25
SWAT -16